Every trader knows the feeling. It is the 2nd of the month, the till is full, and the wholesaler is calling your name. Buy too little and the shelf runs empty by the 20th — customers walk to the next shop and some never walk back. Buy too much and your rent money is standing on the shelf in boxes, waiting for a quiet week it cannot survive.
So: how much stock should you actually buy? Not a feeling. A number. Here is how to find yours.
Start with what actually sells
Not what you like selling. Not what the rep pushes. Look at your last month and be honest about your top ten movers — bread, airtime, paraffin, cold drink, whatever your corner buys. Those items deserve first claim on your stock money, always. The slow movers — the fancy biscuits that sell twice a month — get bought last, if at all.
The two-week rule
For most spaza shops and tuckshops, stock should cover about two weeks of normal selling — not a whole month. Two weeks keeps the shelf full enough to hold your customers, while keeping cash free for the surprise that always comes: the fridge repair, the school shoes, the funeral contribution.
If you sell roughly R1,000 a day in normal weeks, and your stock costs are about 70% of sales, two weeks of stock is around R9,800. That is your ceiling — not the size of the till after payday.
Subtract the quiet week before you buy
Here is the step almost everyone skips. Before the stock trip, ask: what must survive after this trip? Add up what is due before your next big buying day — electricity, transport, your own pay, the loan instalment — plus a cushion for the slow days between the 18th and the 28th. That money is spoken for. It does not go to the wholesaler, no matter how good the special is.
The formula, in plain words: money in hand, minus what must survive, equals stock money. Write those three numbers down before every trip. The discipline of writing them is half the protection.
Specials are only special if they sell fast
A discount on something that moves daily — that is real money saved. A discount on ten cases of something that sells one unit a week is not a special; it is your cash flow going to sleep on a shelf for three months. When the deal is big, come back to the two-week rule: would you have bought this much of this item anyway within two weeks? If not, walk past.
Let your pattern set the number
The honest answer to “how much stock should I buy?” is: your till already knows. Thirty days of till counts show your real rhythm — payday spikes, mid-month dips, pension-day rushes. Your right stock number falls out of that pattern.
This is exactly what The Pulse was built to do for you. You send one WhatsApp message a day with what is in the till, and it learns your pattern — then tells you each day what is safe to spend, so stock trips stop eating the money that rent needed. It is free to join: send JOIN to 067 682 0384 on WhatsApp.
Related: How to manage cash flow in a spaza shop · FAQs